A muted holiday session
It was an unsurprising day in the markets as the US celebrates Thanksgiving and the rest of us are left to watch most asset classes tread on water for most of the session.
European stocks were on track to close slightly higher, which in itself is encouraging given fears about inflation, interest rates and COVID at this time. The latter caused a shock in the markets last Friday but investors have regained their composure. The risk of containments and restrictions has not passed, so it continues to weigh.
The United States released stronger economic data on Wednesday, as it sent us a few days of releases within an hour and a half, which was nice and easy to digest. At the end of the day, the takeaway is that the economy looks strong, the job market is in great shape, and the consumer is ready to spend ahead of the important holiday season.
A number of Fed policymakers will be reassured by the numbers we saw recently following a very strong third quarter earnings season. At times in the last few months it must have seemed like the walls were closing. Inflation accelerated, lasted longer and yet the economy was not necessarily ready for rate hikes. They can now feel a lot more relaxed and we could now see the consensus growing in favor of faster reduction and earlier tightening than the majority allowed themselves to consider before.
Even reading it has been relatively stifled by recent standards. It may have something to do with the public holiday in the United States, although it is probably finding its feet now that the dust has settled following Erdogan’s provocative speech that pulled the carpet under the remaining lira bulls. I’m sure there will be a lot of volatility for the pound in the days and weeks to come, but for now it seems to be getting some breathing space.
A Bitcoin Santa rally?
gets a reprieve during the US holiday. Of course, the story we hear every year is of families sitting around the table and buying Bitcoin on their phones following the exciting annual crypto chat over Turkey. It certainly makes a great story, but I’m sure it probably has more to do with the 20% drop we’ve seen after hitting record highs a few weeks ago and the consolidation we’ve seen in recent days. If the price breaks US $ 60,000 again, this year’s Santa Claus rally may be led by Bitcoin.
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