Macroeconomic forecasts for 195 countries 2021, including five-year history
DUBLIN, August 11, 2021 / PRNewswire / – The “195 Country Macroeconomic Forecast 2021” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com offer.
The macroeconomic forecasts project the main macroeconomic variables of each of the countries established in the world over a period of 20 years.
In addition, this forecast provides five years of history. These variables include GDP and its main components: consumption, investment expenditure, government expenditure, exports and imports. In addition, macroeconomic forecasts make projections on inflation, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, fiscal policy, including tax rates, and major components of the balance. payments as well as foreign exchange reserves.
Real GDP and inflation trends are used in an integrated fashion in each of the other forecast segments to provide a forecast that is integrated across all segment lines (i.e. and agricultural).
Macroeconomic forecasting, as the name suggests, seeks to answer the question; How is this country doing overall?
What can we quantify to get an apples to apples comparison between countries? There are 31 variables calculated through macroeconomic forecasts. The first group is nominal GDP and its components. Calculated in local currency units, it is based on the equation Y = C + I + G + NX. Here we can see how these different components work together and be able to make inferences about the financial health of a country. For example, being able to notice a downward trend in investment or consumption can serve as an indicator of economic shocks, major changes in fiscal or monetary policy, or something potentially more serious.
The second group is simple. The data is imported for the population, and from there the model produces two more values. The population growth rate is easy to calculate and serves as a measure of a country’s overall growth. Most countries experience low volatility in population growth, although a large increase may indicate geopolitical change, geographic increase in land, or increase in life expectancy, to name a few. The last is GDP per capita measured in LCU, as this is a simple way to determine the overall well-being of a country’s citizens.
Then, real values and inflation rates are measured to rely on the information provided by the GDP. Shifting from current local currency units to constant local currency units is a more accurate way to assess savings over time, especially when a forecast spans decades. The four values are real GDP, real GDP growth rate, GDP deflator, and inflation rate. All in all, adjusting for inflation is an easy way to judge actual levels of economic growth over time. This helps to create a more accurate forecast.
After the actual values, the next part of the forecast details the fiscal policy of each country. Thanks to this, the six calculated values include government fiscal budget, fiscal budget growth rate, government revenue, effective tax rate, government deficit / surplus, and government deficit / surplus as a percentage of GDP. Fiscal policy analysis provides a better understanding of a country’s political institutions. Public spending occurs in many forms and varies from country to country. This shows, among other factors, the role that government plays in regulating and owning certain parts of the economy. For many of these values, there is no perfect level, and being higher or lower is not always beneficial.
After reporting the values associated with fiscal policy, the model then reports those associated with monetary policy. They are: money and quasi-money (supply of M2), the growth rate of the money supply, the interest rate and the unemployment rate. These four variables also show a window into a country’s economic institutions, but here observations include those associated with a given currency and how each country controls its money supply. M2 acts as the most accurate count of the amount of money available in a country’s economy at any given time. It can help show the economic health of a country and any potential changes in a currency. The rate of growth of money supply and inflation are understood to be correlated according to monetarist theory. Therefore, from country to country, there should be an obvious relationship between the two. Likewise, another important part of macroeconomic theory, the Phillips curve, shows a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Knowing this detail, comparing a country’s growth in one over time can help answer questions about the other.
The last two groups of variables detail a country’s direct relationship with others through exchange rates. The calculated values as well as the official exchange rate include the total foreign exchange reserves, the trade balance as a percentage of GDP and the NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) trade balance. These values provide insight into how a country trades with others and how this contributes to overall production. Countries that are more self-sufficient or isolationist may trade very little, while others with limited resources may require larger amounts of imports. Again, these variables can also reveal information about institutions in a particular county.
Finally, the forecast shows imports, exports and nominal GDP in US dollars. This mainly involves relying on information about a particular country in relation to United States. In total, 31 variables act as the palette of paints used to create an image on a canvas.
Main topics covered:
I. World economic overview
II. Macroeconomic data of the country
III. Macroeconomic model
For more information on this report, visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/n5sgry
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SOURCE Research and Markets